投资的世界不像物理世界,物理世界很多东西都有唯一的标准答案,你只需要记住这个答案即可。但是在投资世界不存在“大一统”的投资理论,基本都是公说公有理婆说婆有理,因此要甄别哪些言论是“有价值的”,哪些观点是“没价值的”,并不容易。所以就要求你必须具备批判性的思维,能够对材料进行甄别真伪。为了更好的识别谎言,防止被骗,你需要先储备下列”常识“。

第一问:你的目标是什么?

DANGYIFENYANJIUCAILIAOBAIZAINIMIANQIAN,SHOUXIANNIJIUYAOWENZIJIYIGEWENTI:“WOXIWANGTONGGUOXINXIDADAOSHENMEMUDE?NAXIEDONGXIDUIWOLAISHUO,ZHIGUANZHONGYAO?NAXIEDONGXIDUIWOLAISHUO,BUZHIYITI?”。ZHEITINGQILAISHIBUSHIHENJIANDANHENRONGYI?BU,HENDUORENZAIJIESHOUXINXISHI,NAOZICHUYU“SUIJIYUEDU”ZHUANGTAI,TABUSHIDAIZHEWENTILAIXUNZHAODAANDE,TAZHISHIJIXINGYUEDU。

任何信息都包含两方面:一是内容的针对性;二是内容的广泛性。

ZHENDUIXINGSHIZHIZHEIXIEXINXIZHINENGJIEJUEMOUGETEDINGDEWENTI,ERBUKENENGJIEJUESUOYOUWENTI。SUOYOUNIBIXUXIANGAOQINGCHU,NIDAODIXIANGYAOSHENME,NIXIANGYAODEDONGXINENGBUNENGYIKAOZHEIXIEXINXIHUODE,RUGUONIDEDAANSHI:“BUNENG”,NEIMENIJIUMEIBIYAOLANGFEISHIJIANLE,NAPAZHEIXIEXINXIJIAZHIQIANJIN。LIRUNIZAIXUNQIURUHEZUOYIPANMEIWEIDEXIHONGSHICHAOJIDAN。JIEGUONIFANDAOYIPIANXIANGXIJIESHAOXIHONGSHICHAOJIDANDUIRENTIJIANKANGYOUYIDELUNWEN。ZHEIPIANLUNWENDUINILAISHUOJIUSHIHAOWUJIAZHIDE,BUZHIDENILANGFEISHIJIANQUKAN。

乐仑彩票NEIRONGDEGUANGFANXINGSHIZHICAILIAOLIMIANBAOHANLEHENDUODESHUJU(XINXI),DUIYUZUOZHEERYAN,ZHEIXIESHUJUDOUSHIZHIGUANZHONGYAODE,DANSHIDUIYUDUZHEERYAN,ZHEIXIESHUJUDEZHONGYAOXINGSHIBUYIYANGDE。YINWEINIMENDEMUDEBUYIYANG。YINCI,ZAIYUEDUCAILIAOZHIQIAN,NIBIXUZHIXIAOSHENMEYANGDESHUJUDUINILAISHUOSHIGUANJIANDE,SHENMEYANGDESHUJUDUINIHAOWUXIYINLI。JINIYINGGAIXUANZEXINGDIQUYUEDUCAILIAO,XUANZEXINGDIJIESHOUWENZHONGDEGUANDIAN(ERBUSHIZHAODANQUANSHOU)。

第二问:你是否陷入“价值共鸣”陷阱?

RENSHIYIZHONGQUNTIDONGWU,WOMENDOUHUIQINGXIANGYUXUNZHAOGENZIJIJIAZHIGUANXIANGTONGDERENGOUTONGJIAOLIU,“WUYILEIJU”、“DAOBUTONGBUXIANGWEIMOU”。ZHEIZHONGQINGXIANGYEHUIFASHENGZAIWOMENYUEDUCAILIAO、FENXISIKAOWENTISHI,ERWOMENBINGMEIYOUYISHIDAO。PAICHIJIAZHIGUANBUYIYANGDEWENZHANGSHIFEICHANGYANZHONGDECUOWU。

YUQISHUO,RENDOUSHIDAIZHEYIWENQUXUNQIUDAAN,BURUSHUO,RENDOUSHIDAIZHEDAANQUXUNQIURENTONG。ZAIYUEDUCAILIAOSHI,WOMENSHIDAIZHEYOUSEYANJINGQUGUOLVXINXIDE,NEIXIEJIAZHIGUANGENWOMENBUYIZHIDEGUANDIAN,WOMENHUIBENNENGDIPAICHI(NAPATADEJIELUNSHIZHENGQUEDE),NEIXIEJIAZHIGUANGENWOMENYIZHIDEGUANDIAN,WOMENHUIBENNENGDIZHICHIYONGHU(NAPATADELUNJUBUCHONGFEN)。

JUGELIZI,DUOSHURENGANGCHUDAOSHI,ZAIQUANSHANGLIMIANDANGKEHUJINGLI,ZHIZESHIKAIFAKEHU,SHUOFUTAMENLAIYINGYEBUKAIGUPIAOZHANGHU。WOJIUFAXIANYIGEXIANXIANG:DANGYIGEGUMINWENNI“NIJUEDEXXGUPIAOZENYANG?”HUOZHE“NIJUEDEDAPANHOUMIANHUIZENYANGZOU?”,RUGUONIHAIXIANGBATAKAIFACHENGKEHU,NIQIANWANBIEBANIDEZHENSHIXIANGFAGAOSUTA。RUGUOTACHIYOUZHEIGUPIAO,NIQUESHUO“ZHEIGUPIAOJIBENMIANHENLAN,HOUMIANHAIYAODIE。”DUIFANGJIUHUIHUINIYIJU“NISHUIPINGYEBUZAYANGMA!”,RANHOUJIUBUZAIGENNILIAOLE。NIYINGGAIXIANSHITANXINGXUNWENTADEGUANDIANHEYIJIAN,RANHOUZAIPAOCHUGENTAJIANJIEYIZHIDEGERENYIJIAN。ZHEIYANGDUIFANGJIUHUIFEICHANGGAOXING,NIMENDETANHUACAINENGJIXUXIAQU。

乐仑彩票QISHISHENGHUOZHONG,RENMENDOUCENGJINGBEIZHEIZHONGSHOUDUANYINGXIAOGUO。LIRUYIGETUIXIAOYUAN,TARUGUOKANJIANFUNVQIANZHEYIGEXIAOHAI,TAHUIGENFUNVSHUOTAQIAHAOYEYOUYIGEZHEIMEDADEHAIZI,RANHOUGANKAIYANGHAIZIZHENBURONGYI。ZHEIYANGJIUNENGYINQIFUNVDEGONGMING,HOUMIANZAITANSHENGYISHIJIUHUISHIBANGONGBEI。DANTAXIAOSHOUDECHANPINZHILIANGGENZHEIGEYOUSHENMEBIRANLIANXIMA?XIANRANSHIMEIYOUDE。

ERZAIXIEWENZHANGSHI,ZUOZHEWEILE“SHUOFU”DUZHE,YEWANGWANGHUICAIYONGLEISIDESHOUDUAN。SHOUXIANZUOZHEHUIBIAOBANG“WOMENSHIZIJIREN”。LIRU“WOYESHIJIAZHITOUZIFEN,WOYEHENCHONGBAIBAFEITE”。RANHOUZAILIEJUYIXIEYIJINGBEIGONGRENDESHISHI,LIRU“BAFEITEYIZHICHIYOUKEKOUKELE,ZHEIGUPIAOWEITAZHUANLEJIYIYUAN。”ZUIHOUTAHUIPAOCHUTAZIJIDEGUANDIAN:“SUOYIKEKOUKELESHIYIJIAZHIDEGOUMAIDEGONGSI”。ZUOZHESHIJISHANGSHIZAIANSHINI“GOUMAIKEKOUKELECAISHIZHENJIAZHIFEN,FOUZENIJIUSHIWEIJIAZHIFEN”、“BAFEITEGOUMAIDEGUPIAOYIDINGSHIHAOGUPIAO”

乐仑彩票YUCITONGSHI,YOUYUWOMENBENNENGDIPAIJINEIXIEYIJIANGENWOMENBUYIZHIDEGUANDIANHEXINXI。WOMENWANGWANGHUIHULVEDIAOYIXIEFEICHANGYOUJIAZHIDEXINXI。ZUIZHONGJIEGUOJIUSHI:NIHUODEDESHINIZAOYIZHIXIAODEXINXI。NIBUZHIDAODE,NIYIRANBUZHIDAO。ZHEIDUIYUNIDETOUZIJUEFEIHAOSHI,ZHENZHENGDEWEIXIANBINGFEILAIYUANYUNIYIJINGZHIXIAODEXINXI,ERSHILAIYUANYUNEIXIENIBINGBUZHIXIAODEXINXI。

第三问:观点是否被“舆论绑架”?

JIARUYOUXGEFANGAN,XUYAORANG10GERENJITITOUPIAOXUANZEZUIJIAFANGAN,BIXU60%YISHANGDERENTONGYICAINENGTONGGUO。NEIMEZUIHOUXUANCHULAIDEFANGAN,YIDINGSHIZHEIXIEFANGANLIZUIPINGYONGDEFANGAN。WEISHENME?YINWEIYIGENENGRANGSUOYOURENLIYIJUNTANDEFANGAN,YIDINGSHI“BUQIUYOUWEIDANQIUWUGUO”DEFANGAN。

乐仑彩票ZAIGUSHILI,NIBUYINGGAIQUXUNQIUBIERENRENTONGNIDEGUANDIAN,RUGUODAJIADOURENTONGNIDEGUANDIAN,NEIMENIZHEIGEGUANDIANYIDINGSHISHIFENPINGYONG,HAOWUJIAZHI(WUFAZHUANQIANDEGUANDIAN)。LIRUNIJUEDEDAPANYAOZHANG,DANSHINIFAXIAN10GERENLI,YOU8GERENKANDIE,YOU2GERENKANZHANG,CISHINIHUIHUAIYIZIJIDEPANDUAN。NIBUGANQINGYIMAIGUPIAO,JIEGUOGUSHIZHANGLE。ZHIHOU,ZHEI10GERENLI,YOU8GERENKANZHANG,2GERENKANDIE,NIJUEDERENTONGNIGUANDIANDERENZHANJUEDADUOSHULE,YINGGAIMAIRU,JIEGUOYIMAIJIUDIE,LVSHIBUSHUANG。YOULIRU,NITONGSHIKANHAOX、YLIANGJIAGONGSI,BUZHIDAORUHEXUANZE,NIQUWENBIERENGUANDIAN,RUGUOXGONGSIYOU8RENKANHAO,2RENBUHAO。YGONGSIYOU2RENKANHAO,8RENBUKANHAO。NEIMENIMAIYGONGSIJIUDUILE。

乐仑彩票ZAIGUSHILI,WOMENBADAJIAGUANDIANYIZHIDEXIANXIANGCHENGWEI“YIZHIXINGYUQI”,BINGRENWEIDANGQIANDEGUJIAYIJINGFANYINGCHUZHEIZHONGYIZHIXINGYUQI。LIRURUGUODAJIADOUJUEDEGONGSHANGYINXINGJINNIANYEJIZENGZHANG10%,NEIMELILUNSHANGTAGUJIAHAINENGZHANG10%ZUOYOU。DANSHIJISHANG,DANGTAGONGBUYEJIZENGZHANG10%SHI,TAGUJIAKENENGBUZHANGFANDIE,WEISHENME?YINWEIZHEI10%DEYEJIZENGZHANGQISHIZAOZAIYINIANQIANJIUBEIDAJIAZHIXIAO,BIERENDOUSHIYINIANQIANJIUMAIFUBUJU,NIDENGDAOTAGONGBUYEJIZAILAIGOUMAI,NIYIJINGSHIZUIHOUYIGEJIEBANGDERENLE。

乐仑彩票CHULEYIZHIXINGYUQI,HAIYOULINGYIZHONGSHEHUIXIANXIANG:JITISHISHENG。 JIMOUGERENDEGUANDIANYOUYUGENZUQUNLIJUEDADUOSHURENDEGUANDIANBUYIZHI(WOMENZANQIEBAZHEIGEGUANDIANCHENGWEI“PUSHIJIAZHIGUAN”)。WEILEBIMIANZIJICHENGWEIKOUZHUBIFADEDUIXIANG,TAZHIHAOYINZANGZHENSHIDEXIANGFA。

LIRU15NIANGUZAIQIJIANQUANSHANGFENXISHICHUIPENG“GUSHIYIJINGDIECHUJIAZHI”,NANDAOTAMENDOUSHISHAZIMA?LIANYIGEGANGRUMENDEDOUNENGKANCHULAIDEDONGXI,QUANSHANGSHOUXIJURANKANBUCHULAI?ZHENGRUBIERENSHUOGUODE:“CISHIKANKONGYOUZHENG ZHIFENGXIAN,KANDUOYOUDAODEFENGXIAN,CHENMOYOUSHIYEFENGXIAN”——WONENGZENYANG?WOYEHENJUEWANGA。

乐仑彩票ZAIXIEWENZHANGSHI,ZHEIZHONG“WUXINGYALI”YEHUIYANZHONGYINGXIANGDAOZUOZHEDEJIELUN,POYUZHEIZHONGYALI,ZUOZHEHENKENENGHUIYANBUYOUZHONG,YINCIXUYAODUZHEYOUNENGLIQUQUFENNAXIESHIZUOZHEDEZHENSHIBIAODA,NAXIESHIZUOZHEDETAOHUAJIAHUA。ZAIYANJIUYUANXIEDEYANJIUBAOGAOLI,JIUDALIANGCHONGCHIZHEZHEIZHONGZHENZHENJIAJIADEYANLUN。BUGUANYANJIUYUANSHIFOUZHENXINKANHAOGONGSIDEWEILAI,WENZHANGJIEWEIBUFENDOUSHI“NIZHIDEYONGYOU”。WEISHENMEYANJIUYUANHENSHAOJISHANGSHIGONGSI“CHAPING”?YINWEIRUGUOJILE“CHAPING”,NEIMEXIACIJIUHENNANSHUNLIZAIQUSHANGSHIGONGSIZUODIAOYANLE,BUZUODIAOYANJIUNABUDAODIYISHOUDEZILIAO,MEIZILIAOZENMEXIEYANBAO,BUXIEYANBAOZENMEXIANGGONGSIJIAODAI。

TONGYANGDE,DISANFANGSHIWUSUOYENENGBUFENGANSHOUZHEIZHONGYALI,WOMENTONGGUOYIXIEZHUSIMAJILAICHUAIMOLVSHIHESHENJIXIANGBIAODADEZHENSHIYISI,BIRUXIAMIANTONGSUDESHUO。

第四问:论题是什么?论据是什么?结论是什么?

RENHEYIGEGUANDIAN,WOMENDOUKEJIANHUAWEI:LUNTI+LUNJU+JIELUN。

LUNTI:GUSHISHIBUSHIJIANDILE?

JIELUN:GUSHISHANGWEIJIANDI

乐仑彩票LIYOU:CONGKXIANXINGTAIFENXI/CONGZHENGCEFENXI/CONGGUZHIFENXI

乐仑彩票ZHEISHIYUEDUWENZHANGDEJIBENGONG,JINIBIXULEJIEZUOZHEDELUNTISHISHENME。ZHIZHENDUILUNTIJINXINGJIUSHILUNSHI,BUYAOPAOTI。HENDUORENKENENGHUITOUXIAO,YOUZHEIMECHUNDERENMA,LIANZUOZHEXIANGBIAODASHENMEDOUBUZHIDAO?WOGAOSUNI,FEICHANGDUO,ERQIEDOUSHISHOUDAOGUOGAODENGJIAOYUDEREN。LIRUYOUXIEREN,YIKANDUIFANGLIYOULIYOU“CONGkXIANXINGTAIFENXI”LIMAJIUKAISHIJIZUOZHETIEBIAOQIAN”TOUJIKE“,RANHOUJIUKAISHIPIPANDUIFANG:“KAOJISHUFENXICHAOGUKUISINI,CHIYOUHAOGONGSIBUJUPAGUSHIXIADIE”。 ZHEIWANQUANSHIJIGENYAJIANG,RENJIASHIZAITANTAOGUSHISHIBUSHIZHIDIELE,NIQUEGENRENJIACHEJIAZHITOUZIVSJISHUFENXINAGEGENGNIUBI。ZHEIJIUSHISUOWEI“PENZI”。HULIANWANGSHANGCHONGCHIZHEDALIANGZHEIZHONGPENZI。

ZHIDAOZUOZHEDEJIELUNSHISHENME,YIJITADELIYOUSHISHENME,WOMENCAINENGSIKAODUIFANGDELIYOUSHICHONGFEN,DUIFANGDEJIELUNSHIFOUZHANDEZHUJIAO。ZHIYURUHEFENXIDUIFANGDELIYOUSHIFOUZUYIZHICHENGTADEJIELUN。WOMENFANGZAIHOUWENZHONGJINXINGXIANGXIJIANGJIE。

第五问:什么是预测、什么是事实?

  • YUCE:TONGGUOSHUJUHUOZHEZHENGJU,DUIWEILAIFASHENGDESHIQINGJINXINGYANYITUILI。JIEGOUSHI:SHISHI1+SHISHI2+SHISHI3》》》WEILAIHUIZENYANG。

乐仑彩票LIRULIUXIANGJINTIANZAOSHANGCHILEJITUI,GUJIXIAWUDEBISAINENGNAGUANJUN。YOULIRU:JINTIAN1000JIAGUPIAODIETING,WANSHANGYANGXINGXUANBUJIANGXI,LIXXFAWEIBOCHENGZHEILISHI“TAIERDI”,MINGTIANGUSHIJIANGDAZHANG。

  • 乐仑彩票SHISHI:KEGUANMIAOSHUYIJINGFASHENGDESHIQING。JIEGOUSHI:SHISHI1+SHISHI2+SHISHI3》》》ZUOTIANZENYANG。LIUXIANGYINWEIZAOCHENCHILEJITUI,SUOYIJINTIANBISAINALEGUANJUN。

  • XIACHEDAN:HAOWUSHUJUZHICHENGHELUOJITUILI,DUIWEILAIJIJIANGFASHENGDESHIQINGJINXINGTUIDUAN。JIEGOUSHI:JIASHE1+JIASHE2+JIASHE3》》》WEILAIHUIZENYANG。

LIRU,RUGUOLIUYISISHUAIDAO,RUGUOLIUXIANGNENGQIANGPAO,RUGUOCAIPANSHIXIAZI,WOJUEDELIUXIANGJINTIANNENGNAGUANJUN。DANGRANZUIZHUOLIEDEXIACHEDANJIUSHILIANJIASHEDOUBUJICHU,ZHIJIEJIUJICHUYIGEJIELUN。JIEGOUSHI:》》》WEILAIHUIZENYANG。 XIANGZHEIZHONGMEIYOULIYOUZHICHENGDEJIELUN,DUZHEGENBENWUFAPANDUANJIELUNSHIFOUZHENGQUE。

WEISHENMEYAOQUFENYUCE、SHISHI、XIACHEDAN?YINWEIYUCEZHISHIYOUYIDINGGAILVHUIZHENGQUE。SHISHISHI100%ZHUNQUEDE,XIACHEDANJIUSHISHUALIUMANG。RUGUONIMEINENGFENQINGZHEISANZHEDECHABIE,NEIMEZAIKANWENZHANGSHI,HENRONGYIBAYUCEKANCHENGSHISHI,HUOZHEBAXIACHEDANKANCHENGYUCE。

WOMENKANWENZHANGDESHI,DUIYUZUOZHEDEGUANDIAN,YAOANZHAOYIXIAYUANZELAIQUBIEDUIDAI:SHISHIQUANPANJIESHOU,YUCEYAOKANTADETUILILUOJISHIFOUHELI,XIACHEDANZHIJIEHULVE。

JULI:SHOUHUANBAOHECHAYINGXIANG,XIBEIDIQUBUFENSHUINICHANGTINGCHAN,JINRISHUINIJIAGEXIAOFUSHANGZHANG2%。YOUYUHUANBAOHECHAHAIYAOCHIXU1GEYUE,YINCIWEILAIYIDUANSHIJIAN,SHUINIGONGYINGPIANJIN。RUGUOXIBEIZUIDADESHUINICHANGHAILUOSHUINITINGCHAN,NEIMESHUINIJIAGEJIANGDAFUSHANGSHENG,YINCIWOMENKEYIGUANZHUSHUINIXIANGGUANDESHANGSHIGONGSI。

SHANGMIANZHEIDUANHUA,SHIBUSHIKANQILAIFENXIDEHENZHENGQUE?DANRUGUONIYINWEISHANGMIANNEIDUANMIAOSHUJIUQUGOUMAIHAILUOSHUINI(GUPIAO),NEIMENIDAGAILVYAOKUIQIAN,WEISHENME?WOMENANZHAOSHANGMIANXUEDEZHISHILAIBAZHEIDUANHUAJINXINGCHAIJIEFENXI,GAOQINGSHENMESHISHISHI、YUCE、XIACHEDAN。

SHISHI:SHOUHUANBAOHECHAYINGXIANG,XIBEIDIQUBUFENSHUINICHANGTINGCHAN,JINRISHUINIJIAGEXIAOFUSHANGZHANG2%。

YUCE:YOUYUHUANBAOHECHAHAIYAOCHIXU1GEYUE,YINCIWEILAIYIDUANSHIJIAN,SHUINIGONGYINGPIANJIN。

XIACHEDAN:RUGUOXIBEIZUIDADESHUINICHANGHAILUOSHUINITINGCHAN,NEIMESHUINIJIAGEJIANGDAFUSHANGSHENG

WEISHENMEZUIHOUNEIJUSHIXIACHEDAN?ZUOZHENAZHIYANJINGKANJIANHAILUOSHUINIYAOTINGCHANLE?RENJIASHUOGUOYAOTINGCHANMA?JIUSUANYOUTINGCHAN,TINGCHANDEGUIMOYOUDUODA?SHIQUANBUDOUTINGCHANHAISHIZHITINGCHANLE10%DECHANNENG?

第六问:观点是否能够被证伪?

ZHENGWEI,ZHIDESHIDUIFANGDEGUANDIANNENGGOUBEIKEGUANCHADEZHIBIAOZHENGMINGSHICUOWU(HUOZHENGMINGSHIZHENGQUEDE)。BUKEZHENGWEI,ZHIDESHIDUIFANGTICHUYIGEGUANDIAN,WAIRENGENBENMEIBANFAZHAODAOZHENGJUQUFANBOTA。

乐仑彩票BUKEZHENGWEIDEGUANDIANTONGCHANGJUYOUYIXIATEDIAN:

1.作者没有给出观察信号。

LIRU:GUSHISHIJINGJIQINGYUBIAO,FANYINGLEJINGJIZHUANGKUANGDEBIANHUA。

WOXIANGXINDAJIADOUCENGTINGGUOZHEIJUHUA,DANZHEIZHIBUGUOSHIYIJUFEIHUA。ZUOZHEBINGMEIYOUJICHU“JINGJIZHUANGKUANG”DEHENGLIANGBIAOZHUN。RUGUONIYONGGDPHENGLIANG“JINGJIZHUANGKUANG”,DUIFANGJIUHUISHUO“GDPBUNENGWANQUANDAIBIAOJINGJIZHUANGKUANG,JINGJIZHUANGKUANGSHIYILANZIDEZONGHEYINSU”。

2.作者给出的观察信号,无法获取,或数据获取难度极高。

LIRU:GUIZHOUMAOTAIWEISHENMECONG2014NIANJIANDI?YINWEIZHONGGUOZHONGCHANJIEJIDESHULIANGZAIZENGJIA,YOUYUJUMINSHOURUSHUIPINGZENGJIA,YINCIYIQIANHEBUQIMAOTAIDEREN,XIANZAIDOUHEMAOTAI,SUOYIGUIZHOUMAOTAIDEGUJIAZHANGLE。

ZHEIJUHUADELUOJIRANGRENWUFABIANBO,YINWEICONGLUOJISHANGLAIFENXI,ZHEISHIZHENGQUEDE。DANSHIZHEIGEGUANDIANWUFAYONGYUSHIJICAOZUO。DIYI,JUMINSHOURUDADAOSHENMEZHUANGKUANGCAIJIAO“ZHONGCHANJIEJI”? DIER,WORUHEQUTONGJIGENZONGZHONGCHANJIEJIDESHULIANG?ZHEISHUJUCONGNALIKEYIHUOQU?DISAN,DANGJUMINSHOURUSHUIPINGDADAOSHENMEJUTISHUZISHI,JUMINCAIHUIQUGOUMAIMAOTAI?YUERU5000YUANHAISHIYUERU10000YUAN?ZHEIGEBIAOZHUNDAODIYOUSHEILAIDING?KEXUEBU? DISI,ZHEIGUANDIANGENBENWUFAJIESHIWEIHEGUIZHOUMAOTAIGUJIAHUIZAI2014NIANCHUDI,NANDAO2012NIANJUMINSHOURUMEIZENGJIA?2013NIANJUMINSHOURUYEMEIZENGJIA?WEISHENMEQIAHAOFASHENGZAI2014NIAN?

乐仑彩票YOULIRU:RUHETIQIANPANDUANYIJIAstQIAOGONGSIJIJIANGZHURUSHENMEZICHAN?FANGFASHIGENZONGLEJIEDONGSHIZHANGDEXINGZONG,LIRUTAZUIJINJINGCHANGQUNAXIEDIFANGCHUCHA,GENNAXIERENJIANGUOMIAN。GENTALAIWANGZUIMIQIEDEGONGSIZUIYOUKENENGCHENGWEIZHONGZUDUIXIANG。

乐仑彩票ZHEIJUHUATINGQILAIHENZHENGQUE,DANSHINIRUHEQUGENZONGRENJIADEXINGZONG?RUHEQIETINGDUIFANGDETANHUA?NINANDAOSHIFBICHUSHENDEMA?YINCIZHEIJUHUAGENBENMEIRENHEKECAOZUOXINGKEYAN。

LEISIDEGUANDIANSHIZAITAIDUOLE,LIRUXUANGONGSISHI,YAOZHUZHONG“GUANLICENGDEZHILI”,YAOKANGONGSIZHANLVESHIFOUZHENGQUE。NIYIWEINISHIHEFANGSHENSHENG?GONGSIGUANLICENGDENEIDOUNENGRANGNIYIGEWAIRENZHIDAO?GONGSIDEZHANLVENENGRANGNIYIGEWAIRENZHIDAO?NINANDAOZHIWANGCONGGONGSICAIWUBAOBIAONENGDEDAOSHANGSHUWENTIDEDAAN?HUOZHEZIJIPAOQUSHANGSHIGONGSIZUOGESUOWEIDECAOGENDIAOYANJIUNENGHUOXI?NIYETAITIANZHENTAIYOUZHILEBA。

ZHEIZHONGGUANDIANSHIZUIJUBEIMIHUOXINGDE,YINWEITADEJIELUNSHIZHENGQUEDE,BINGQIETADEZHENGJUCONG“LILUN”SHANGSHIKEYIHUOQUDE。DANZAISHICAOGUOCHENGZHONG,YOUYUSHUJUHUOQUDENANDUTAIDA,BUJUBEIRENHECAOZUOJIAZHI。

3.作者的观点没有定性、定量的分析。

乐仑彩票LIRU“ZUOGUPIAOZHUANQIANHENJIANDAN,NIGAOMAIDIMAIJIUXINGLE”。ZHEIJUHUATINGQILAIHAOXIANGHENYOUDAOLI,DANSHIGAODEBIAOZHUNSHISHENME?DIDEBIAOZHUNSHISHENME?DUIFANGMEIJICHULAI。NIXIANGFANBOTA:“WO10YUANMAILEWANKEa,JIEGUODIEDAO2YUAN。”DUIFANGJIUHUISHUO:”SHUOMINGNIMAIDEBUGOUDI”。RUGUONISHUO:“WOBENLAIDASUAN2YUANMAIWANKE,JIEGUOTADIEDAO3YUANJIUBUDIELE,ZHIJIEZHANGDAO10YUAN”。DUIFANGJIUHUISHUO:“3YUANYIJINGGOUDILE。”RUGUONISHUO:“WO3YUANMAILEZHONGGUOSHIYOU,JIEGUOTADIEDAOZHISHENG0.1YUAN。NIBUSHISHUO3YUANYIJINGZUGOUDILEMA?”DUIFANGJIUHUISHUO:”GAODIDOUSHIXIANGDUIDE,BUTONGGEGUBUYIYANG。“ZONGZHI,NIYONGYUANDOUMEIBANFAZHENGMINGDUIFANGSHICUODE,YINWEIBIAOZHUNDOUSHITAZIJISHUOLESUAN。

乐仑彩票SHENMECAIJIAOKEZHENGWEI?DUIFANGDEGUANDIANLIBAOHANLEGUANCHAXINHAO,BINGQIEJICHULEGUDINGDEBIAOZHUN。LIRU,DUIFANGSHUO:TAIYANGSHICONGXIBIANSHENGQIDE。 DIERTIAN,NIGUANCHAYIXIATAIYANGSHENGQIDEFANGXIANG,JIUNENGPANDUANTASHUODEHUASHIFOUZHENGQUE。 YOULIRUDUIFANGSHUO“ZHEIGEGUPIAO6GEYUENEINENGZHANGDAO10YUAN”,NEIMENIZHIXUGUANCHADENGDAI6GEYUE,KANKANGUJIASHIFOUCENGJINGCHAOGUO10YUAN,BIANNENGYANZHENGTADECAIXIANG。

GUSHILICHANGJIANDEBUKEZHENGWEISHUYU(ZHENGQUEDEFEIHUA):

乐仑彩票FENGGAOMAICHU——SHENMECAIJIAOGAO?

MAIJIAZHIDIGUDEGUPIAO——SHENMEYANGDEGUPIAOCAIJIAOJIAZHIDIGU?

MAILANCHOU——NAXIEGUPIAOCAISUANLANCHOU?

乐仑彩票GAOPAODIXI——SHENMEJIAGECAIJIAOGAO,SHENMEJIAGECAIJIAODI?

MAIGAOCHENGZHANGDIGUZHIDEGUPIAO——GAOCHENGZHANGDEBIAOZHUNSHISHENME,DIGUZHIDEBIAOZHUNSHISHENME?

乐仑彩票ZUOJIAZHITOUZI——JIAZHITOUZIDEBIAOZHUNSHISHENME?

WEISHENMEGUSHILICHONGCHIZHEDALIANGZHEIZHONGZHENGQUEDEFEIHUA?YINWEIZHEIYANGZI,DUZHEJIUWUFAFANBOZUOZHEDEGUANDIAN,ZUOZHE“GUSHEN”DECHENGHAOJIUBUHUIBEIDAPO。ZHIYAOSHIYUCEJIUYIDINGHUIYOUCUO,YOUCUOJIURONGYIZAZIJIZHAOPAI,YINCIZUIHAODEBANFAJIUSHIZHIJICHUYIXIE“ZHENGQUEDEFEIHUA”DEJIANYI。RUGUODUZHEYIJUJIANYIMAIGU,ZHUANQIANLE,NEIJIUSHIZUOZHEDEBENSHI。RUGUODUZHEKUIQIANLE,NEIJIUSHIDUZHESHUIPINGBUGOU,BUNENG“SHENKELIJIE”ZUOZHEDEYUANWENDEHANYI。ZONGZHI,ZUOZHEDEGUANDIANYONGYUANDOUSHIDUIDE,YONGYUANDOUNENGZIYUANQISHUO。

ZHEIZHONGZHENGQUEDEFEIHUAYOUHEWEIHAI?ZHEIZHONGFEIHUAYINWEIJUBEIFEICHANGDADEMIHUOXING,SUOYILUOJIBUHAODERENWANGWANGHUICHIKUISHANGDANG。ERSHIJISHANG,TAMENDEGUANDIANWANQUANBUJUBEICAOZUOJIAZHIDE。ZHEIZHONGYANCISHISIERFEIDEPIANZICHONGCHISHICHANG,JIEGUOBAZHENZHENGYOUSHUIPINGDERENBIXIAQULE。WEISHENME,YINWEIHOUZHEJIDEJIANYISHIKEZHENGWEIDE,JIRANSHIYUCEWEILAI,JIUBIXUYOUSHIWUDESHIHOU。YIGESHI100%JUEDUIZHENGQUEDEREN,YIGESHIZHIYOU50%ZHUNQUELVDEREN。YIBANDERENHUIGENGXIANGXINSHEI?ZUIZHONGJIEGUOJIUSHILIEBIQUZHULIANGBI。

第七问:他是不是在精选特例?

JINGXUANTELISHIZHIZUOZHEWEILEZHENGMINGZIJIDEGUANDIAN,TEYITIAOXUANDUIZIJIYOULIDEZHENGJUCHENGXIANJIDUZHE,BADUIZIJIBULIDEZHENGJUDOUHULVEDIAO。ZHEIHUOXUSHIGUPIAOSHUJILIZUICHANGJIANDECUOWU,ZHEIZHONGMAOBINGZAIJINGJILINGYUSHIPUBIANCUNZAIDE。

FANJINGXUANTELICUOWUYOULIANGZHONGYUANYIN:

乐仑彩票YISHISHUJUYANGBENBUGOUDA,BUZUYIDECHUJUBEITONGJIXUECHAYIDEJIEGUO。YOUYUJINGJILINGYUWUFAFANFUSHIYAN(WULISHIYANKEYIFANFUZUOJIQIANBIAN),YINCIZAIJINGJIXUELINGYUDEJIELUNWANGWANGDOUBUJUBEIKEXUEXING,LIRUHUOBIDIAOKONG、HONGGUANDIAOKONGDEFANGFA。 ZHEIYESHIWEISHENMEJINGJILINGYUJINGCHANGHUICHUXIANHEITIANEHUOJINGJIWEIJI,YINWEIJUECEJIGOUDEJUECESHOUDUANDOUSHIMEIYOUJINGGUOTONGJIXUEJIANYANDE,SHUYUMOZHESHITOUGUOHE,YIDANCUOSHIBUDANGJIUHUIYINFAZAINAN。

ERSHIYANGBENSHULIANGZUGOUDA,DANSHIZUOZHEWEILEZHENGMINGZIJIDEGUANDIAN,GUYIHULVEDUIZIJIDEBULIDEYANGBEN,ZHITIAOXUANDUIZIJIYOULIDEYANGBEN。

RUSHANGTUSUOSHI,ZHEIJIUSHIYIGEDIANXINGDE“JINGXUANANLI”LIZI,ZUOZHEZHITIAOXUANSHIHOUDAFUSHANGZHANGDEMOUGEGULAISHUOSHI。QUEGUYIBANEIXIESHIHOUXIADIEDEGEGUDOUPINGBIDIAO。RUGUONIANZHAOTAJIDETEZHENGQUXUANGU,ZUIZHONGNIHUIFAXIANNISHIWENDINGKUIQIANDE。

DANSHIYIBANDEXINSHOUGUMINBUZHIDAOZHEIZHONG“JINGXUANTELI”XIANJING,YIWEICHAOGUJIUZHENDEZHEIMEJIANDAN,JIUPINGZHEIYIZHAOJIUNENGTANGZHESHUQIAN。POBUJIDAIDEQUSHIYONG,ZUIHOUDASHISUOWANG。

XIANGZHEIYANGDEANLISHIZAITAIDUOLE,BAOKUONEIXIESUOWEIDE“GUSHEN”,JIMOUYINIAN,TADESHOUYILVHENGAO,YUSHIHENDUORENJIUGUANZHUTA,MEITIDASIBAODAOTA,TOUZIZHEYONGYUERENGOUCHANPIN。JIEGUOLAINIANDIEDEXIANGTUOSHIYIYANG。WENTICHUZAINALI?WENTIJIZAIYUZHEIXIESUOWEIDE“GUSHEN”ZHISUOYINENGZAIMOUYINIANQUDEDIYIMING,SHUOMINGTADEFANGFAYIDINGSHIFEICHANGJIJIN,FEISHENGJISIDENEIZHONG,MENGDUILEJIUBAOZHUAN,MENGCUOLEJUKUI。FOUZEYIBANDEWENZHONGSHOUFASHIHENNANHUODEGUANJUNDE。NIKANNEIXIECHAOGUBISAIJIUZHIDAOLE,NENGGOUNAGUANJUNDE,DUOSHUSHIZHUIZHANGTINGBANDEREN,WEISHENME,YINWEITADEFANGFAJIDUJIJIN,YUNQIHAO1GEYUEZHUAN100%,YUNQIBUHAOBANNIANNENGKUIDIAO90%。QITACAIYONGTONGYANGJIJINSHOUFADEREN,100GERENLI,90GEDOUKUIDELIANKUCHADOUMEIDESHENG。(ZHEILIBINGBUSHIFOUDINGDUANXIANZHUIBANDEFANGSHI,YEXIANGXINYOUFENGMAOLINJIAODESHENSHOU,RANDADUOSHURENDOUGUODUZIXINLE,ZHUIQIUXIAOGAILVSHIJIAN)。ZHENGHAOMEITIHEQUNZHONGXUANZEXINGHULVENEI90GEREN,ZHIJUJIAOYUZUICHENGGONGDENEI10GEREN。DANSHIYUNQIZHEIDONGXI,BUHUIYONGYUANDOUZHANZAININEIBIAN(NIKEYILIJIEWEISHICHANGFENGGEQIEHUANDAOZHIYUANLAIDECAOZUOCELVESHIXIAO),YUSHIJIUHUICHUXIANJINNIANGUSHENHUOZHEGUANJUN,2NIANHOUPAIMINGDIANDIDEQINGKUANG。TADEFANGFAZHIBUGUOBABIERENSANNIANZHUANDEQIAN,YINIANNEIJIUQUANBUTOUZHILE,JIEXIALAI2NIANJIUSHIMANMANHAIZHAIDEGUOCHENG。

第八问:观点是否包含了隐藏假设前提

RENHEJIELUNDECHENGLI,DOUSHIJIANLIZAIMOUZHONGQIANTIJIASHEZHISHANG,JIZHIYOUFUHEMOUZHONGTEDINGDEHUANJING,CAINENGDECHUZHEIYANGDEJIELUN。YOUXIEJIELUN,ZUOZHEHUIGAOSUNIQIANTITIAOJIANSHISHENME。DANSHIYOUXIEJIELUN,ZUOZHEBINGMEIYOUJICHUQIANTITIAOJIAN。

BUJICHUQIANTITIAOJIANYOULIANGZHONGYUANYIN,DIYIZHONGSHIZUOZHEGUYIBUJICHU,WEILERANGZIJIDEJIELUNNENGGOUGENGJUYOU“GUANGFANSHIYONGXING”,TAYINZANGLEQIANTITIAOJIAN。

DIERZHONGSHIZUOZHEMORENDUZHEYIJINGZHIXIAOQIANTITIAOJIAN。JIDUINEIXIEDAJIAGONGRENDESHISHI,ZUOZHEBUZAIDUOQUJIESHI,FOUZEMEISHUOYIJUHUADOUYAOJIESHIBANTIAN,ZHEIWENZHANGMEIFAXIEXIAQULE。JIANERYANZHI,ZUOZHESHIMORENLEDUZHEGENZUOZHESHI“ZIJIREN”,WOMENYONGYOUXIANGTONGDEJIAZHIGUAN,YONGYOUXIANGTONGDEZHISHIBEIJING。YINCIDUIYUYIXIE“CHANGSHI”,WOMENJIUMEIBIYAOHUABIMOQUMIAOSHULE。WODEJIELUNDOUSHIJIANLIZAIZHEIXIE“CHANGSHI”ZHISHANG。

乐仑彩票LIRU“TAIYANGCONGDONGBIANSHENGQI”,ZHEIGEJIELUNCHENGLIDEQIANTISHI:NIBIXUZHANZAIDIQIUKANRICHU。RUGUONIZHANZAIQITAXINGQIUKANRICHU,NEIMETAIYANGJIUBUYIDINGSHICONGDONGBIANSHENGQIDELE。DANSHIZUOZHEBUHUIGAOSUNIZHEIGEJIASHEQIANTI,YINWEITA“MOREN”NISHIZHANZAIDIQIUKANRICHUDE。

乐仑彩票ZAIKANYANJIUBAOGAOSHI,WOMENYAOTEBIEZHUYIZHEIZHONGYINHANDEJIASHETIAOJIAN。YOUXIESHIHOU,ZUOZHEZIJIDOUBUZHIDAOZIJIDEJIELUNHAIBAOHANLEJIASHEQIANTI。YOUXIESHIHOUZUOZHEHUIZAIWENZHANGZUIHOUZHUMINGYIXIETEBIEZHONGYAODEJIASHEQIANTI。

YONGJIANDANDEHUALAIMIAOSHUSHANGMIANDEYANBAOBAOGAOJIELUNJIUSHI:RUGUOQUMEIJIAJUTONGSHIMANZUXIALIEQIANTITIAOJIAN,NEIME2018-2020NIANDEJINGLIRUNCAINENGDADAO3.39YI;4.45YI;4.93YIYUAN。

TIAOJIAN1:XIAOSHOUQUDAOSHUNCHANG,BUCUNZAICHANPINZHIXIAODEWENTI

乐仑彩票TIAOJIAN2:FANGDICHANXIAOSHOUWEICHIDANGQIANXIANZHUANG,CHENGJIAOLIANGBUHUICHUXIANJISUXIAJIANG。

TIAOJIAN3:SHOUGOUDEGONGSINENGGOUWANCHENGYEJICHENGNUO,BUCHUXIANSHANGYUJITI。

乐仑彩票ZHIDAOLEZHEIXIEJIASHEQIANTIYOUSHENMEYONG?ZHIDAOHOU,NICAINENGQUFENXIZHEIXIEJIASHEQIANTISHIFOUCHENGLI(HUODAGAILVNENGCHENGLI),RUGUOLIANQIANTIDOUSHICUOWUDE,NEIMEJIELUNJIUZHIDEHUAIYI。

乐仑彩票LIRUTIAOJIAN2:FANGDICHANXIAOSHOUWEICHIXIANZHUANG。CONGGUOJIAHONGGUANZHENGCEFENXI,NIJIUNENGDECHUJIELUN,YOUYUYANLIDEFANGDICHANDIAOKONG,CHENGJIAOLIANGBUKENENGZAIWEICHIZHIQIANDEGAOSHUIPING,YINCIZHEIHUIDUIYEJIDAZHEKOU。

乐仑彩票TIAOJIAN3:SHOUGOUDEGONGSISHIFOUNENGGOUWANCHENGYEJICHENGNUO?RUGUONIZIXIFANKANTAGUOQU3NIANCAIBAOJIUZHIDAO,ZHEIJIABEISHOUGOUDEGONGSI(HAIWAIDEJIAJUGONGSI)YEJISHIXIAHUADE,DANSHITAJURANCHENGNUOWEILAISANNIANSHIXIANLIANXUDEGAOZENGZHANG,ZHEIGECHENGNUONENGFOUSHIXIANJIUFEICHANGZHIDEHUAIYI。

YINCIZONGHEFENXI,ZHEIGUPIAOBUQUEDINGXINGTAIDA,ZHEIPIANFENXIBAOGAOBUKAOPU。